This year’s INDEX admissions data reflects a subtle shift in funnel dynamics. While early indicators suggest modest demand tightening, enrollment outcomes remain stable, supported by improved yield and stable attrition.
Enrollment Inched Up (+0.5%)
Average enrollment increased 0.5% year-over-year, sustaining the steady gains observed over the past five years. PK-8 and Middle/Upper schools grew an average of 0.9%, while PK-12 schools grew 0.3%.
Why this matters:
Stable enrollment growth continues to reflect strong retention, disciplined admissions management, and healthy institutional positioning.
Applications Showed Mild Softening (-1.1%)
Average application volume dipped modestly. PK-12 and Middle/Upper schools declined 1.7% and 1.0%, respectively, while PK-8 schools saw a 1.5% increase. Variability across schools remains wide.
Why this matters:
Small shifts in applications often serve as early indicators of changing market conditions. Monitoring conversion metrics and market positioning will be increasingly important.
Acceptance Rates Rose Slightly (+4.0%)
As application volume softened, schools admitted a larger share of applicants. Acceptance rates increased 4.3% at PK-12 schools, 4.1% at Middle/Upper schools, and 2.0% at PK-8 schools. (Percent increase, not percentage points increase.)
Why this matters:
Rising acceptance rates are a predictable response to funnel dynamics and do not inherently signal reduced selectivity or weakened standards.
Yield Strengthened Modestly (+0.6%)
Yield improved, with PK-8 and Middle/Upper Schools increasing 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively, while PK-12 schools remained effectively stable.
Why this matters:
Yield strength reflects institutional attractiveness, value perception, financial aid alignment, and admissions experience effectiveness, and can offset softer application volume.
Attrition Remained Stable
Average attrition held steady at 6.0%. PK-12 and PK-8 attrition rates remained largely flat, at 6.2% and 7.9% respectively, while Middle/Upper school attrition declined from 4.5% to 3.9%.
Why this matters:
Stable or declining attrition reduces admissions pressure, stabilizes revenue, and typically signals strong family satisfaction and institutional fit.